Saturday’s 1400m Class Three Highway Handicap at Royal Randwick sees several of the runners from the 1400m Class Two Highway a fortnight ago lining up again.
Thunderbet‘s Andrew Price likes the favourite and has a soft spot for one of the extreme outsiders.
Track conditions are very interesting this week, with the rail out 9m from the 1000m and 7m for the remainder.
There will be nothing wrong with the fence come race three.
We should see a sunny but very windy Randwick with a good four likely, and horses that get some cover will gain an advantage.
Two weeks ago, I thought it would be close between Miss Thatcher and Burrandana and this week, I have the same pair clearly on top, albeit in the reverse order.
The beauty of this week is that they represent excellent value in the early markets.
Burrandana ($4.40) was terrific first-up beaten only 2L, and he might have won if it wasn’t for the gate.
While there looks to be more speed in the race this week, I think Burrandana can sit midfield with cover, and with Jason Collett steering, he’ll be presented at the right time.
The trip stats aren’t ideal, with one third placing from four tries; however, the 1400m runs have been in strong grade, and each run has had a lot of merit.
He is well-trained by the very capable Peter Morgan from Wagga; his second-up record is perfect, he drops 1.5kg on the first-up run, and with the extra fitness under his belt, he’ll be exceptionally hard to beat.
I also must note the early market support has been strong.
Miss Thatcher ($6) was a shade disappointing first-up, but in a race that lacked speed, she ran them along unnecessarily fast.
She is perfectly drawn again, gets in with 53kg (again) after the claim from Zac Lloyd, and hopefully this week, if she does lead them up (likely), it is off a more appropriate tempo.
While unplaced at the trip from two goes, she will be at peak fitness third up and, I suspect, benefit from being on the rail.
It will be interesting to see if the strong wind plays any part in the earlier races.
Otherwise, there’s no knock this week; with the right tempo, she’ll take some running down.
Cavaup ($10) can fill the minors, although there are many chances outside the top two.
The map looks ideal, and From gate seven, she should sit just behind the speed with cover and be given her chance at the pointy end.
The run at Ipswich was in a good grade and is better than what it may look on paper.
The two runs before that were excellent (both wins), and if the track does stay soft, it will also help.
I’m not convinced she has the class to beat the top two, but she’s a well-bred filly who will come to this race very fit, and I expect her to be in the finis.
The’ Each Way Play’ this week is an absolute bolter at $71 win and $13 place in Lipstick Lil.
She comes out of the Highway won by Acappella Sun three weeks ago, where she drew wide, was taken back against her normal pattern, and was given absolutely no chance (beaten 4.8L).
Her runs prior to that were very good, including a tough second with 61.5kg behind Starlink in a good grade at Dubbo.
From gate 3 this week, with 54kg, she’ll get every possible chance with Jenny Duggan on board.
Lipstick Lil is a tough mare, and when the whips are cracking, don’t be surprised if she’s proving hard to run down.
The $71 on offer is massive value for mine.
Thunderbet’s selections
1. Burrandana $4.40
2. Miss Thatcher $6
3. Cavaup $10
Each Way Play: Lipstick Lil $71/$13
