The Grafton XXXX July carnival is one of the best Country Cup carnivals of the year, and Sunday’s eight-race South Grafton Cup card has not disappointed.
Sunny, warm weather is predicted between now and race day, so hopefully, the soft six improves to a five or even a good four while the rail is out three metres.
The main event is, of course, the South Grafton Cup, and being a Big Dance Qualifier, it has attracted some quality individuals, and Thunderbet‘s Andrew Price has run his keen eye over the field.
Cotehele ($3.30) for John O’Shea and Tom Sherry comes to this race in great form and is the one to beat.
The Tavistock gelding ran into wet tracks at his first two runs this prep, and while not disgraced, I think he is better on a soft five or better.
The run two starts back at Rosehill (1500m, BM88) was off the charts.
He was in more traffic than a Pitt Street traffic jam at the 300m and got clear to win in grand style.
He was then five weeks into the Civic (trial in between), where he was once again fantastic, crossing from a wide gate to sit in the first few and going down by less than a length (green late).
He does get an additional 3.5kg here, but note that the winner there, Ucalledit, is up 6.5kg.
Of his 20 career runs, only one has been at the mile, which was almost two years ago but noted that was a Bondi Stakes where he was beaten only 2.7L behind the very capable Hilal.
The map is perfect here – from gate one, he should sit in the first half dozen with cover and, with a touch of luck, will be very hard to beat.
The lightly-raced horse on the up is Space Tracker ($2.60) for Annabel Neasham with Ben Looker to steer.
His two Australian runs have been good, but I expect him to improve here third up at the mile.
Last time he was beaten 1.2L behind Attractable (BM78) but was given every chance possible by the talented Jett Stanley.
From gate seven, he’s likely to get a sweet run in transit, he will appreciate the extra trip, and with only 54kgs, he is very well-placed.
The support has been strong in the early betting, but he is short enough now.
Harry Telford used to say, “Weight could stop a train,” which may well be the case here with Cepheus ($4).
He is a quality gelding in very good form, coming off an excellent second in the Glasshouse beaten less than a length.
Prior to that, he ran a great fourth in the Eye Liner, also beaten less than a length off five weeks.
The mile here looks perfect now, and with the ‘Bookies Nightmare’ Aaron Bullock to ride, he will undoubtedly be given a great run just behind the speed.
He must concede 4.5kg to Cotehele and 8kg to Space Tracker, and that might tell in the concluding stages, but the weight is the only knock.
It will be no surprise to see him look the winner at some point in the final furlong.
The ‘Each Way Play’ is Too Much Caviar ($11) for the Waterhouse & Bott stable.
It gets in here nicely on the minimum and should get a good run with Amy McLucas to ride from gate 2.
He looked to have needed the run first up but wasn’t disgraced, beaten only 2.1L behind Stonecoat.
He drops 5.5kg on that run. The drier the track, the better for this gelding, and the 1600m second up looks ideal.
The $14 on offer is great value, particularly if he can strike a good track come Sunday.
Thunderbet’s tips
1. Cotehele $3.30
2. Space Tracker $2.60
3. Cepheus $4
Each Way Play: Too Much Caviar $11
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