What a magnificent day of racing set down at Dubbo for the Winter Country Classic Qualifier meeting on Friday.
The forecast looks just as promising. After an ordinary rainy Thursday, Friday should see a clear day, a drying surface, and a top of 17 degrees.
Thunderbet‘s Andrew Price has run his eye over the program, and he’ll focus on the two Country Classic qualifier races; however, what a quality line-up of up-and-coming two-year-olds in the Silver Goblet.
While Hellfire Express is the obvious pick (may go to Randwick instead), some promising youngsters in the line-up will run around at nice prices!
The fillies & mares edition of the qualifier goes first in race 6.
It’s a Benchmark 58 over 1300m, and the early markets suggest it’s a very open race with Hamoon Money, the current favourite, at $4.00.
I’ve got Lipstick Lil on top by a whisker from Hamoon Money, and at the $9.50, Lipstick Lil is a great each-way bet.
She’s rising 6kg on her last run after the claim, but almost every runner is rising 5 to 6 kilograms on their previous runs.
With 61.5kg, she actually gets in well at the weights considering all but the bottom weight has 59kg-plus.
Gate 6 is ideal for Lipstick Lil, and the 1300m third up is perfect. Her two runs in this prep have been full of merit in a stronger class.
In my view, the market has missed her at the $9.50 on offer, and she will be very hard to beat.
Hamoon Money is another with a great chance. She also rises 5kg on the second-up run at Bathurst, but I like her back to 1300m third-up.
She’s a lightly raced mare with a good record and gets a good map with Buckley on from gate 2.
Trained by Brett Robb, she’s got a bit of quality about her and gets her home track, where she’s had three starts for two wins and a second.
The only slight query is whether she carries the 62kg, but as I said earlier, that query applies to most of these mares.
From a staking point of view, I want to be on both Lipstick Lil ($8) and Hamoon Money ($4) for a good return on investment.
Starlink at $4 can fill the placings after a nice last-start win at Bathurst (note: Hamoon Money 4th), where she got a nice run on the inside to win.
From gate 7, she will get back and find the line but is another one up 6kg on the last run.
This is Starlinks eighth run in this prep, and I’m not sure the 1400m back to 1300m will suit it as much as Hamoon Money, but that aside, Starlink is an excellent chance to be in the finish.
Another hitting the line hard in this race will be Lago’s Daughter, the value play in the race at $10.
She was good at Gunnedah breaking the maiden before having a 1000m sharpen-up at Muswellbrook.
That run was very good, given that once she got clear air, she found the line nicely, which is a good tune-up for this race.
She probably doesn’t want too much rain, but the 1300m now is ideal; she’s drawn nicely in 3, and if she gets some speed on up front, she can definitely win.
Selections
1. Lipstick Lil $9.50
2. Hamoon Money $4
3. Starlink $4
Value Play: Lago’s Daughter $10
The colts and geldings go around in race 7, and their race is incredibly difficult! This is one of the harder races I’ve seen to assess for some time.
I’ve got Starane on top, but I’m anything but confident!
He should get a nice run for Cavallo from gate 9 and be thereabouts at the business end.
The run at Dubbo two back off a month was good, as was last time at Wellington when beaten a length at 1100m.
The 1300m now looks like the right move; winkers go on, a soft track would be ideal, and he is going to be hard to beat at $5.50.
Feirme Prince, next best, is drawn to get a nice run for Nestor from gate 6.
Both runs in this prep have been very good after a stable change to Toby Pracey.
I thought the last run at Dubbo, where he found the line nicely, was the right lead-up to this.
The 1300m third up looks his go, and with speed on and an ounce of luck, he can win this race.
In a very tough race, the $7.50 represents good value.
Climate Control at $11 is another good chance in this race.
I’m not sure what to make of the gate, which is closer to the car park than the racetrack.
At first glimpse, it’s a nightmare draw; however, this is a gelding that will get back anyway, which will ease (slightly) the pain of the draw.
The other unknown is how the track will be playing by race 7.
If they can swoop wide, then the wide draw won’t be such an issue.
I thought the run at Gosford was good off a freshen-up, and the 1300m now looks ideal.
He won’t want the track too wet but is a very nice chance at $11 in an extremely open race.
The value play is Ransoming for the Sylvester yard at $26.
I really like the freshen-up for this guy. He comes here a month between runs, and the 1600m to 1300m may well be the masterstroke.
He’ll get back from gate 12, but with speed on, he should be charging late. $26 is huge odds.
Selections
1. Starane $5.5
2. Feirme Prince $7.5
3. Climate Control $11
Value Play: Ransoming $26
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